We will use your email address only for sending you newsletters. Please see our Privacy Notice for details of your data protection rights.
The US election is just under a month away with the Democrat candidate in a seemingly commanding position. A CNN poll released this week has Mr Biden a remarkable 16 points ahead of his Republican opponent. Not only does the survey put President Trump in a perilous position, but nine out of 10 people polled said their mind was made up ahead of election day. While the evidence so far is stacked against a victory for President Trump, lessons from 2016 mean he still cannot be ruled out.
As data from Real Clear Politics shows, at this stage Hillary Clinton led President Trump by five points, but ended the campaign with a shock defeat.
Mr Biden is also leading in a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll.
Mrs Clinton led in this poll too, however, data in both polls shows that President Trump has a higher mountain to climb this time round.
Real Clear Politics’ polling shows Mr Biden has an eight-point lead – a three-point boost on Mrs Clinton at the same stage of her campaign.
Meanwhile, ABC and Washington Post polling showed Mrs Clinton to be just two points up last time round, while at the same stage Mr Biden is up six points.
While Guardian polling paints a similarly bleak picture for President Trump – down in swing states such as Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – there is cause for encouragement for the Republicans.
This is because polls – particularly in some swing states – severely undercounted Trump supporters in 2016.
This contributed to the shock that accompanied Mr Trump’s eventual victory, and means that even polling can’t offer a certain picture of who will win.
Speculation has started over how the election result will be impacted after President Trump’s contraction of coronavirus.
After receiving medical treatment, Mr Trump has tried to revive his campaign immediately.
But political scientist Brian Klaas told LBC that the president’s hopes are all but over.
He said: the news “reduces the amount of time he [President Trump] has to reset the narrative of the race”.
Professor Klaas added: “The clock is ticking. “When you’re losing, that’s a bad thing.”
He noted that President Trump was “hoping that the coronavirus pandemic would not be what the reelection campaign would be about”.
Prof Klaas pointed out that “people who would vote for him do not admire him on a personal level because of his conduct,” and thus he felt there would be very little sympathy for Mr Trump’s condition.
He added: “He’s behaved extraordinarily recklessly in the last seven months.”
US election ‘bloodbath’ after Bernie Sanders’ brutal Joe Biden swipe [INSIGHT]
Joe Biden poised to issue huge blow to Scottish independence bid [ANALYSIS]
Donald Trump’s brutal assessment of Italy’s EU membership: ‘Get rid!’ [INSIGHT]
Analysis by FiveThirtyEight tells a different story.
Given that the election is decided by who wins electoral colleges, not simply the most votes, Mr Biden’s lead may not be as strong as some suggest.
There are 538 electoral college votes up for grabs across the US’ 50 states, meaning 270 is needed to win.
The former Vice President looks strong for at least 231 electoral college votes, Telegraph analysis highlights.
But, there are 128 electoral colleges where respective leads for either candidate sits at less than two percent.
President Trump can thwart Mr Biden’s progress by performing considerably better in these crucial swing states.
Source: Read Full Article